Cod Almighty | Diary
Formidable? That'll do for me!
26 November 2015
Devon Diary writes: Now, I know it's not in our nature to acknowledge when things go right but even the most cynical of Town fans would have to admit that apart from the Cheltenham game we've been looking pretty good recently. What has changed though?
We can put forward our own subjective opinions such as "Our defence seems much more solid these days" or "Jamie Mac has got his confidence back" but is there more to it than what we spot during a game? Is there anything quantifiable to show why we're rising in the league?
Quantifiable? Yep, what I'm talking about is data and cold, hard stats. Before you run to the hills in fear of a slew of tabulated figures (I'm sorry original/regular Diary, I'm looking at you) have no fear – this is in graphical form and makes perfect sense!
I'll going to put my hand up right now and admit I haven't done any of the heavy lifting here: that's all courtesy of a chap I discovered on Twitter called Ben Mayhew. Ben runs a website/blog called Experimental 361, where he takes raw match data and shapes it so you and I can nod at it and exclaim: "That! That's it! That's what's happening!"
Take attacking effectiveness, for instance. Earlier in the season Town were taking far too many shots in order to score but now we're hovering around the 'constant threat' area (note: these charts are cumulative).
A couple of month ago we were firmly in the 'avoiding the issue' quadrant of 'defensive effectiveness' but we've been moving slowly but surely towards 'formidable' with our recent form balancing out our shaky start.
The 'expected goals' chart puts us firmly where we need to be if we want to be finishing top of the table – high-scoring yet conceding few.
The last chart is one of my favourites: 'shots taken vs shots faced'. As with the 'expected goals' chart, we've been moving towards the optimum situation of a busy attack and a quiet defence. This is something that's been evident on the pitch – we're on the front foot for the majority of a game these days.
Of course, Paul Hurst hasn't looked at this analysis – but it reflects and emphasises the work he's doing on the training ground to fix the problems that were evident earlier in the season. We're nicely placed in the league, and Ben's analysis shows we're solid and going to be where we want to be at the end of the season if we keep this up.
Even if you look at Ben's work and say: "I knew all that", this last chart is one that makes your life a lot easier and one you would hurt your brain working out – what might happen to your team depending on possible combinations of results around them?
Follow Ben on Twitter or subscribe to his website. It's fascinating, very clever and perfect fuel for a pub conversation.
While things are going reasonably well – even this week's Dover and Lincoln results are going our way – news tends to be a bit thin on the ground but hold on, look, we've signed a striker!
Why a striker? It's not immediately clear (perhaps Birmingham have asked us not to cup-tie young Alex Jones) but whatever the reason, James Alabi is joining us on loan from Ipswich Town for a couple of months. He's young, a 'big unit' and while he doesn't have any real record in the league, the goals he has scored look pretty tidy. I'm willing to overlook the loan spell at Scunthorpe if he puts away a header for us like he did for them.
Will he play at the weekend? I can't see Hurst dropping Amond or Jones after the last couple of games so expect him to feature as a sub towards the end of the second half. Kidderminster have been improving but we should put them away with minimal fuss this weekend – like we should have back in August. We've settled into the season. The players know what they need to do and now the stats support it too. Amond on the scoresheet, of course, and I'm going to be ridiculously optimistic and say we're heading into our break from league football with a comprehensive win. Goals for Townsend, Jones and Alabi? Why not! Up the Mariners!