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Tips for 25-26 September 2004 - the result
Andy Holt
27 September 2004
This week the CA readers are represented by none-other than
CA's own Mark Stilton. Judging from his comments on Friday
he wasn't particularly enthusiastic about his chances, equating his method of choosing the match results to those of Mat's competitor from last year, Coco the chimp. Would his lack of detailed analysis result in a poor performance or would his random-style choosing yield a positive return? Let's find out, shall we? With Mat looking to follow up last week's impressive profit with another this week, and FART, the statistical system, needing to prove his worth after a pretty disasterous season so far, who would be this week's Dean Gordon and who would be the Gordon Brown?
| Bet type |
Mat |
Stake |
Max return |
FART |
Stake |
Max return |
Mark |
Stake |
Max return |
| Perm 3 from 5 |
Liverpool, Man Utd, Gillingham, Ipswich & Wolves/Cardiff
|
25p |
£21.43 |
Celtic, Arsenal, Hereford, Rangers & Man Utd |
39p |
£16.29 |
Peterhead, Port Vale, Hull, Wycombe & St Mirren |
25p |
£13.11 |
| Perm 3 from 5 |
Bristol City, Torquay/Tranmere, Wrexham, Airdrie & Gretna/Elgin
|
25p |
£75.82 |
Chelsea, Morecambe, Exeter, Crawley Town & Torquay |
11p |
£7.19 |
Aston Villa, Wolves, Luton, Walsall & Rochdale/Notts County |
25p |
£19.08 |
| |
Potential return: |
|
£97.26
|
|
|
£23.48
|
|
|
£32.19
|
In terms of matches correct, Mat had his worst week of the season. He managed
to get only three correct. Luckily for him all three were in his first perm so
at least he didn't lose the whole fiver. I think Mat needs to send a thankyou
card to the whole Ipswich team with a special little love note attached for Shefki
Kuqi though. The Blues, at home to Plymouth, were 2-0 down after 13 minutes but,
on hearing of Mat's plight, they rallied back and two late goals by the Yugoslavian-born
Finn presented Ipswich with a 3-2 win and Mat with £1.28. Iain Hume's late
second for Tranmere in their 2-1 against Torquay denied Mat a fourth correct result
but he had the draw in that match in perm two, so Hume's 20th league goal for
Rovers made no difference to Mat's P&L.
In contrast, FART improved on last week recording its second best score of the
season. The glorified spreadsheet of match ratings picked the correct result in
seven of its ten matches. The way FART picks its results any week when Arsenal,
Man Utd, Chelsea, Rangers and Celtic all win is going to prove a winner for it.
And so it proved. With four of those five and Hereford making up the first perm
FART achieved a perfect five. Sadly the two correct in perm two was not so impressive.
In fact it didn't matter to FART whether Didier Drogba scored in the 81st minute
or not. Someone who did have more of an impact on FART's finances was Hereford's
Adam Stansfield. In the 82nd minute of his team's match at Leigh RMI he scored
what he must have thought was the winner. If FART was able to sit in a chair it
would jumped out of it only to slump back down eight minutes later as Leigh's
Steve Smith scored to make it 3-3. But FART, if it had any, would have got a good
thigh workout as the persistant Stansfield scored again to claim three points
for Hereford and an extra £10.42 for FART.
And finally we move on to Mark. On finding out how he did he commented "I've
made my excuses already....Mat deliberately left it to the last minute to remind
me". Yep, that'd explain it. Mark actually only managed to get two results
correct. This equals the worst performance by anyone this season. FART scored
two at the beginning of this month and Paul Thundercliffe equalled the total for
the CA readership a week later. With one correct result in each perm it's clear
that Mark has lost the whole fiver, but he has a right to feel agrieved. Four
of the eight remaining matches ended in draws, and three of those four were in
the first perm. In fact one of those matches was only tied up in the last minute.
Mark Roberts scored for Airdrie to make the score 1-1 against St Mirren. The thing
is, even if Mark Roberts hadn't chosen that moment to score his first league goal
for his club it would have made no difference to the bottom line. As we all know,
two matches correct in a three from five perm still equals zero return. Mark's
got more to add on the subject of half of his incorrect picks ending in draws.
"Drawing is what rubbish teams do. That's why Boston drew with us (note:
we didn't draw with them, we merely tried not to lose)" he says. "Draws
my arse." Quite. He goes on "Oh...and never bet on Midland teams. Wolves
and Villa - I should've known. You can never rely on them to do what they're supposed
to do. Wolves did especially bad. And Hull? Oooh, big fancy new stadium and lots
of fans who've just started supporting you because you've got nice new plastic
seats. A 0-0 draw with Stockport. STOCKPORT. Hardly promotion form is it? Bunch
of funny-talking spazzers." There's nothing more I need to add.
So this week is definitely a win for FART. He simply blew his competitors away
both in terms of matches correct and financial return. But as my nan used to say
just scrape off the fluffy grey stuff, the jam is fine underneath.
| Bet
type |
Mat |
Stake |
Actual return |
FART |
Stake |
Actual return |
Mark |
Stake |
Actual return |
| Perm 3 from 5 |
Liverpool, Man
Utd, Gillingham, Ipswich & Wolves/Cardiff
|
25p |
£1.28 |
Celtic, Arsenal,
Hereford, Rangers
& Man Utd |
39p |
£16.29 |
Peterhead, Port Vale, Hull, Wycombe
& St Mirren |
25p |
£0.00 |
| Perm 3 from 5 |
Bristol City, Torquay/Tranmere, Wrexham, Airdrie & Gretna/Elgin
|
25p |
£0.00 |
Chelsea, Morecambe, Exeter, Crawley
Town & Torquay |
11p |
£0.00 |
Aston Villa, Wolves, Luton, Walsall
& Rochdale/Notts County |
25p |
£0.00 |
| |
Total return: |
|
£1.28 |
|
|
£16.29 |
|
|
£0.00 |
|
Matches correct: |
|
3/10 |
|
|
7/10 |
|
|
2/10 |
So at the end of our second month of competition and as the footy leagues begin
to take shape it's all closing up again in the tipping comp. Mat's small return
closed the gap slightly on the readers, while FART's profit, the second best
by anyone this season, narrowed the gap between first and last place to less
than four squid. The CA readership is now only £3.41 in profit, Mat is
72p up and FART is very slightly in the red, being 33p down. In terms of prediction
accuracy, FART is beginning to edge ahead. It is 54% accurate while Mat and
you, dear readers, have dropped below 50%, both being right 49% of the time.
Listen, Mark scored two this week, and Si scored five back in week one. The CA staff are not particularly making a good job of this. And it's your name they're ruining, you know. Why not stand up yourselves eh? Why not show who's the boss? You CA readers need to represent yourselves in this competition. So email Mat to volunteer to have a pop at this, why don't you. Go on. What's the the worst that could happen?
To see the tips for next week click here
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