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Darlington (h)
Mat Hare
19 August 2005
Not a lot to say about last week's tips because not a lot happened. Some people went to Chester and then went home again without playing in or watching a League Two football match. Obviously both bets were non-runners so no changes to the profit/loss figures this week. And as these tips are partly based on the records of the teams in corresponding fixtures throughout the past dozen or so seasons I will have to redo all the sums again when the rearranged fixture is played. Joy!
This weekend sees Town hosting Darlington and me going to a barbecue. To be honest I would rather place bets on the latter of those events because it's odds-on that I will get really drunk and the way the football match will end is much less clear cut. This weeks sees me with almost nothing to work with on one front and nothing conclusive on the other front. I hate weeks like this
Since the inception of the Premiership Grimsby Town have played Darlington at Blundell Park just once, in March of this year in fact. And the Mariners lost, 1-0. I thought when I first noticed this that I was at that match but on further reflection I have no idea why I would have been up north for that one. Unless I then went over to Sheffield for a housewarming party. Maybe that was it. Anyone who knows what I have been doing with my life is free to e-mail in and put me out of my misery. But that's by the by. One match is not enough to base anything on, other than the fact that, assuming it was that game I was at, Darlington tend to employ referees because the ref at the game I was at was anything but fair. But you can't bet on which side the ref will favour, at least not with any of the UK bookmakers.
So we move on to comparative records in corresponding fixtures, something that is both useful as a guide to match outcomes and in need of a much snappier title. This is our second home fixture and Darlington's second game on the road. We have each played a corresponding game 13 times in the period covered by my data, during which time Town have won four, drawn six and lost three times whereas Darlo have won five, drawn four and lost four. Put those records together and your h/d/a comes out as 8/10/8. It could hardly be more even. We've won some, lost some. Saturday's opposition have done pretty much the same and it all evens out in the wash. Unfortunately.
What does this all mean then? Ladbrokes have priced Town up as 6/5 favourites which is not an attractive price when only 31% of the games have ended in a home win. We’d want 9/4 for that to be a good bet. But the record for away teams is the same, eight wins in 26 matches so can we get a good price on Darlington? 15/8 is the best on offer with the high street bookies and even Betfair don't go as high as the 9/4 we are after. So that leaves the draw – is that worth backing? There have been 10 draws in 26 games so anything better than 8/5 could be viewed as value on the draw. 9/4 is available at numerous bookies including SkyBet and Bet365 so we'll take a small punt on the draw. No lays this week because the teams are, on paper at least, evenly matched and more or less anything could happen. This is a week for keeping stakes low and biding your time till better opportunities come along.
Bet 6: 0.5pt Grimsby v Darlington to be draw @ 9/4 (general)
And I think that means I have gone for the draw in every game doesn't it?
Record so far... (not including the above)
Bets: 5
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 60%
Profit: -0.30pts
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