Cod Almighty | Article

by Tony Butcher

5 June 2025

There's a time to plant, a time to reap, a time to laugh, a time to weep. There's a time to build up and a time to break down some of the devilish details hidden in the data and come up with absolute proof of your own pet theory of why Town went out not with a bang but with a whimper.

Statattack - easier said than done

Where did it all go right, when did it all go wrong? Why did Town rise so high and fall just short. Didn't we tell you - don't get excited man, 'cos we're short, literally.

When push comes to shove perhaps Town are not only too short but just too nice. What did we see before our eyes? There was a lack of ruthlessness, a team that won't leg up the prancing horse as it gallops away in midfield, that wouldn't do what was required to stop, to win, for 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune than to raise an arm against a sea of troubling counterattacks.

Ah, but they're a great bunch of lads, lovely lads, lads you'd be happy to be your neighbour. They'd cut your grass and water your tomatoes (and strawberries) when you're away on holiday, they'd tell you about that broken gutter and insist on fixing it for you. Lovely lads, great lads.

Perhaps only Danny Rose has some devilment, but he's a cheeky, cheery chap rather than a bandit with a sneaky, snidey side. Lovely lad, great lad.

Remember, it's all about the data these days, so where are those hard-boiled eggs, no, sorry, hard-boiled facts which prove any old passing thesis? They are lying in plain sight; not just the anecdotal evidence of leads lost, but one long slog of a season of card counting. As every Pontoonite will tell, count your cards to win the game. The old Ponny chant of "Gerrintothem" wasn't just a crude, brain-dud exhortation, but a driver to success, or at least avoiding failure in them olden days of old.

So, you want numbers, you got 'em.

Over the entire League season of 46 games Town got 87 yellow cards, opponents totalled 117, but how did they break down per outcome? Was there a significant difference between wins and losses, was there a difference depending on outcome? Oh yes.

Bookings per game

Opponents were more cloggy when Town won, a little less cloggier, but still cloggier than Town, when the opposition won; and both teams were as cloggy as each other in a draw.

Broken down further, one may conclude that Town react the opposite to opponents in adversity – opponents get dirtier, Town get more passive (or in Artell speak "controlled"). Town get booked more when they win. This is only outcome-based, i.e. the result of accumulation of actions, but with a sample size of 46 games, this is a sufficient spread of variables to conclude that the result of the actions and decisions within each game and, yes, the psychology of the two teams is reflected in this statistic. In other words a trend or pattern of behaviour. Those bald statistics show that opponents get booked more than Town whatever the outcome, with Town's card count being the same whether they win or draw. Town draw when the opponents are equally passive.

Now here's a thing…

What's even stranger is that after winning at Salford in October there was a stark and marked decline in the number of yellow cards Town received per game in a defeat. There were only two such matches where two Town players were booked in a game - and in no lost games were more than a couple booked.

Bookings post Salford 12/10/24

In the eight games lost since the turn of the year there were only eight Town bookings. In the last five games - the crunching business end of the season - there were three games in which no Town player was booked, and just four cards in total, three in the Port Vale draw and one against Swindon.

What does this tell us? One can't help but conclude that Town became less aggressive. That's the flip side of the incantation to remove emotion and maintain control. Those numbers show, quite plainly, that Town lose when they are passive, collectively and individually; they draw when the opponents are equally passive, but Town win when they get stuck in (or are prepared to be darkly arty) a bit more.
One could say it is obvious, but in these data-driven days one does need a fact base. Ladies and gentleman of the jury, in conclusion, the evidence before the court is incontrovertible, there’s no need for the jury to retire.

Next season, to go the extra mile (or simply the extra three points): "GET INTO THEM".

I rest my case and await the court's derision.